Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.022601 0.025656 0.028997 0.032926 0.037426 0.042424 0.048406
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.017460 0.021514 0.026346 0.032550 0.040329 0.049795 0.062241
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.014688 0.019108 0.024687 0.032283 0.042411 0.055527 0.073926
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.013146 0.017882 0.024148 0.033104 0.045673 0.062823 0.088239
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.011595 0.016377 0.022962 0.032773 0.047158 0.067691 0.099602
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.010780 0.015757 0.022864 0.033864 0.050657 0.075645 0.116239
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.009513 0.014321 0.021409 0.032748 0.050678 0.078352 0.125098
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.008594 0.013297 0.020436 0.032212 0.051460 0.082203 0.136079
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.007652 0.012136 0.019124 0.030980 0.050948 0.083859 0.143517
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007338 0.011935 0.019293 0.032140 0.054453 0.092432 0.163726
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007048 0.011738 0.019440 0.033255 0.057966 0.101342 0.185546
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.006757 0.011509 0.019504 0.034218 0.061283 0.110214 0.208309
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006242 0.010860 0.018809 0.033804 0.062130 0.114809 0.223743
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005790 0.010283 0.018192 0.033474 0.063104 0.119760 0.240549
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005393 0.009770 0.017638 0.033195 0.064127 0.124873 0.258268
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005189 0.009590 0.017676 0.034041 0.067427 0.134820 0.287387
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004849 0.009125 0.017137 0.033699 0.068287 0.139872 0.306504
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004716 0.009045 0.017323 0.034823 0.072281 0.151886 0.342749
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004334 0.008445 0.016443 0.033673 0.071327 0.153157 0.354342
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004052 0.008020 0.015876 0.033122 0.071604 0.157143 0.372846
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003719 0.007470 0.015011 0.031853 0.070159 0.157085 0.381461
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003654 0.007463 0.015266 0.033048 0.074414 0.170608 0.425873
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003585 0.007444 0.015492 0.034196 0.078679 0.184626 0.473526